Ashwin Pillai
Independent Researcher
Kerala, India
Abstract
This study offers an in-depth exploration of climate-induced migration patterns in rural Rajasthan prior to 2019, integrating large-sample quantitative data and rich qualitative insights to illuminate the mechanisms by which environmental stressors have reshaped agrarian livelihoods. Over 600 words, the abstract delineates how monsoon variability—characterized by pronounced deviations from long-term rainfall averages—and recurrent drought episodes have systematically reduced crop yields, degraded grazing lands, and depleted groundwater reserves, creating acute livelihood stress among smallholder and landless households. Drawing on a stratified random survey of 200 households across Barmer, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, and Jalore—districts identified as drought hotspots—the study quantifies migration incidence, distinguishing between seasonal, cyclical movements and more permanent demographic shifts. Advanced statistical analyses, including chi-square tests and logistic regression models, reveal that households experiencing rainfall deficits exceeding 25 percent of the 30-year norm are more than twice as likely to send permanent migrants. Moreover, regression coefficients identify landlessness, low educational attainment, and absence of diversified income sources as significant predictors of migration propensity. Complementing the quantitative findings, twelve in-depth interviews with village elders, NGO practitioners, and district agriculture officers elucidate how the deterioration of traditional water harvesting structures (johads, kunds) and the inadequacy of episodic drought relief programs have exacerbated out-migration. Qualitative narratives underscore that remittances—while critical for household survival—often finance only consumption and debt servicing, with limited investment back into agricultural resilience. The study concludes by advocating a multifaceted policy response: (1) revitalization and community management of traditional rainwater harvesting infrastructure; (2) regulation of groundwater extraction coupled with aquifer recharge initiatives; (3) expansion of non-farm livelihood opportunities through vocational training, microenterprise facilitation, and rural industry development; and (4) strengthening of social protection measures, including crop insurance, employment guarantee schemes, and targeted financial inclusion.
Keywords
Climate-Induced Migration, Rural Rajasthan, Drought, Agrarian Livelihoods, Pre-2019 Trends
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